Facts, Norms and Expected Utility Functions

Sophie Jallais (1) , Pierre-Charles Pradier (2, 3) , David Teira (4)

1 PHARE - Pôle d'Histoire de l'Analyse et des Représentations Économiques
2 CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne
3 SAMOS - Statistique Appliquée et MOdélisation Stochastique
4 Dpto. de Lógica, Historia y Filosofía de la ciencia. UNED

In this paper we want to explore an argumentative pattern that provides a normative justification for expected utility functions grounded on empirical evidence, showing how it worked in three different episodes of their development. The argument claims that we should prudentially maximize our expected utility since this is the criterion effectively applied by those who are considered wisest in making risky choices (be it gamblers or businessmen). Yet, to justify the adoption of this rule, it should be proven that this is empirically true: i.e., that a given function allows us to predict the choices of that particular class of agents. We show how expected utility functions were introduced and contested in accordance to this pattern in the 18th century and how it recurred in the 1950s when M. Allais made his case against the neobernoullians.

Mots clés: Expected utility; Normative theory

Domaines: Economies et finances

Sophie Jallais, Pierre-Charles Pradier, David Teira. Facts, Norms and Expected Utility Functions. History of the Human Sciences, 2008, 21 (2), pp.45-62. ⟨10.1177/0952695108091414⟩. ⟨halshs-00274361⟩