Using maps of city analogues to display and interpret climate change scenarios and their uncertainty

Sebastian Kopf; Minh Ha-Duong; Stéphane Hallegatte

Using maps of city analogues to display and interpret climate change scenarios and their uncertainty

Sebastian Kopf ¹ Minh Ha-Duong ² Stéphane Hallegatte ^{2, 3}

2 CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement

3 CNRM - Centre national de recherches météorologiques

Abstract : We describe a method to represent the results of climate simulation models with analogues. An analogue to a city A is a city B whose climate today represents A's simulated future climate. Climates were characterized and compared non-parametrically, using the 30-years distribution of three indicators: Aridity Index, Heating Degree Days and Cooling
Degree Days. Analogy was evaluated statistically with the two-samples Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, generalized to 3 dimensions. We looked at the climate of 12 European cities at the end of the century under an A2 climate change scenario. We used two datasets produced with high-resolution
regional climate simulation models from the Hadley Center and Meteo France. Climate analogues were generally found southward of present locations, a clear warming trend even if much model and scenario uncertainty remains. Climate analogues provide an intuitive way to show the possible eﬀects of climate change on urban areas, oﬀering a holistic approach to think about how cities adapt to diﬀerent climates. Evidence of its communication value comes from the reuse of our maps in teaching and in several European mass-media.

Keywords : Climate change Climate analogues Climate relocation Urban Areas Uncertainty

Document type :

Journal articles

Domain :

Humanities and Social Sciences / Environmental studies

Humanities and Social Sciences / Geography

Sciences of the Universe [physics] / Earth Sciences / Climatology

Environmental Sciences / Global Changes

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Submitted on : Thursday, May 15, 2008 - 12:06:36 PM
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