Using maps of city analogues to display and interpret climate change scenarios and their uncertainty

Sebastian Kopf 1 Minh Ha-Duong 2 Stéphane Hallegatte 2, 3
1 Jacobs University [Bremen]
2 CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement
3 CNRM - Centre national de recherches météorologiques
Abstract : We describe a method to represent the results of climate simulation models with analogues. An analogue to a city A is a city B whose climate today represents A's simulated future climate. Climates were characterized and compared non-parametrically, using the 30-years distribution of three indicators: Aridity Index, Heating Degree Days and Cooling
Degree Days. Analogy was evaluated statistically with the two-samples Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, generalized to 3 dimensions. We looked at the climate of 12 European cities at the end of the century under an A2 climate change scenario. We used two datasets produced with high-resolution
regional climate simulation models from the Hadley Center and Meteo France. Climate analogues were generally found southward of present locations, a clear warming trend even if much model and scenario uncertainty remains. Climate analogues provide an intuitive way to show the possible effects of climate change on urban areas, offering a holistic approach to think about how cities adapt to different climates. Evidence of its communication value comes from the reuse of our maps in teaching and in several European mass-media.
Keywords : Climate change Climate analogues Climate relocation Urban Areas Uncertainty
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Submitted on : Thursday, May 15, 2008 - 12:06:36 PM
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CNRS | ENPC | EHESS | CIRED | CIRAD | METEO | ETUDES-URBAINES | AGROPARISTECH | PSL | PARISTECH

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Sebastian Kopf, Minh Ha-Duong, Stéphane Hallegatte. Using maps of city analogues to display and interpret climate change scenarios and their uncertainty. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, European Geosciences Union, 2008, 8, pp.905-918. ⟨halshs-00260190v2⟩

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