Using maps of city analogues to display and interpret climate change scenarios and their uncertainty

Sebastian Kopf; Minh Ha-Duong; Stéphane Hallegatte

Using maps of city analogues to display and interpret climate change scenarios and their uncertainty

Sebastian Kopf ¹ Minh Ha-Duong ² Stéphane Hallegatte ^{2, 3}

2 CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement

3 CNRM - Centre national de recherches météorologiques

Abstract : We describe a method to represent the results of climate simulation models with analogues. An analogue to a city A is a city B whose climate today represents A's simulated future climate. Climates were characterized and compared non-parametrically, using the 30-years distribution of three indicators: Aridity Index, Heating Degree Days and Cooling
Degree Days. Analogy was evaluated statistically with the two-samples Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, generalized to 3 dimensions. We looked at the climate of 12 European cities at the end of the century under an A2 climate change scenario. We used two datasets produced with high-resolution
regional climate simulation models from the Hadley Center and Meteo France. Climate analogues were generally found southward of present locations, a clear warming trend even if much model and scenario uncertainty remains. Climate analogues provide an intuitive way to show the possible eﬀects of climate change on urban areas, oﬀering a holistic approach to think about how cities adapt to diﬀerent climates. Evidence of its communication value comes from the reuse of our maps in teaching and in several European mass-media.

Keywords : Climate change Climate analogues Climate relocation Urban Areas Uncertainty

Document type :

Journal articles

Domain :

Humanities and Social Sciences / Environmental studies

Humanities and Social Sciences / Geography

Sciences of the Universe [physics] / Earth Sciences / Climatology

Environmental Sciences / Global Changes

Complete list of metadatas

Cited literature [27 references] Display Hide Download

https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00260190
Contributor : Minh Ha-Duong <>
Submitted on : Thursday, May 15, 2008 - 12:06:36 PM
Last modification on : Tuesday, April 9, 2019 - 11:26:11 AM
Long-term archiving on : Friday, November 25, 2016 - 10:14:33 PM

Kopf.ea-20080515-UsingMapsOfCi...

Files produced by the author(s)

Using maps of city analogues to display and interpret climate change scenarios and their uncertainty

File

Identifiers

Collections

Citation

Export

Metrics

1133

380

Contact

Using maps of city analogues to display and interpret climate change scenarios and their uncertainty

File

Identifiers

Collections

Citation

Export

Share

Metrics

1133

380

Contact