Using maps of city analogues to display and interpret climate change scenarios and their uncertainty

Sebastian Kopf 1 Minh Ha-Duong 2 Stéphane Hallegatte 2, 3
1 Jacobs University [Bremen]
2 CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement
3 CNRM - Centre national de recherches météorologiques
Abstract : We describe a method to represent the results of climate simulation models with analogues. An analogue to a city A is a city B whose climate today represents A's simulated future climate. Climates were characterized and compared non-parametrically, using the 30-years distribution of three indicators: Aridity Index, Heating Degree Days and Cooling
Degree Days. Analogy was evaluated statistically with the two-samples Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, generalized to 3 dimensions. We looked at the climate of 12 European cities at the end of the century under an A2 climate change scenario. We used two datasets produced with high-resolution
regional climate simulation models from the Hadley Center and Meteo France. Climate analogues were generally found southward of present locations, a clear warming trend even if much model and scenario uncertainty remains. Climate analogues provide an intuitive way to show the possible effects of climate change on urban areas, offering a holistic approach to think about how cities adapt to different climates. Evidence of its communication value comes from the reuse of our maps in teaching and in several European mass-media.
Keywords : Climate change Climate analogues Climate relocation Urban Areas Uncertainty
Type de document :
Article dans une revue
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, European Geosciences Union, 2008, 8, pp.905-918
Liste complète des métadonnées

Littérature citée [27 références]  Voir  Masquer  Télécharger
https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00260190
Contributeur : Minh Ha-Duong <>
Soumis le : jeudi 15 mai 2008 - 12:06:36
Dernière modification le : vendredi 19 octobre 2018 - 16:04:01
Document(s) archivé(s) le : vendredi 25 novembre 2016 - 22:14:33

Fichier

Kopf.ea-20080515-UsingMapsOfCi...
Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : halshs-00260190, version 2

Collections

ENPC | EHESS | CIRED | CIRAD | METEO | ETUDES-URBAINES | AGROPARISTECH | PSL | PARISTECH

Citation

Sebastian Kopf, Minh Ha-Duong, Stéphane Hallegatte. Using maps of city analogues to display and interpret climate change scenarios and their uncertainty. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, European Geosciences Union, 2008, 8, pp.905-918. 〈halshs-00260190v2〉

Exporter

BibTeX TEI DC DCterms EndNote

Partager

Métriques

Consultations de la notice

989

Téléchargements de fichiers

309

Contact

support.ccsd.cnrs.fr
hal.support@ccsd.cnrs.fr
Logo CCSD