Scenarios for differentiating commitments : a quantitative analysis

Odile Blanchard (1)

1 LEPII - Laboratoire d'Economie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale

Various paths are possible, towards future global participation in the effort to mitigate climate change. The chapter examines three worldwide scenarios of differentiated commitments from a quantitative perspective. The Per Capita Convergence scenario allocates emission allowances to countries based on population. The Relative Responsibility scenario shares emission reductions according to the countries' respective responsibilities for climate change. The Dynamic Target scenario frames the mitigation effort on the basis of reductions in carbon intensity. Based on a long-term concentration stabilization goal, each scenario focuses on the period 2010–2030.The findings show how the three differentiation scenarios yield varying CO2 emission allowances and abatement costs across countries.

Le chapitre développe une analyse quantitative (coûts, quantités) de trois scénarii mondiaux de différenciation des engagements des pays à réduire leurs émissions de gaz à effet de serre.

Mots clés: CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE; DIFFERENCIATION; ANALYSE QUANTITATIVE

Mots clés: CLIMATE CHANGE; SCENARIO; DIFFERENTIATION; MITIGATION

Domaines: Economies et finances

Odile Blanchard. Scenarios for differentiating commitments : a quantitative analysis. K.A. Baumert, O. Blanchard, S. Llosa and J.F. Perkaus. Building on the Kyoto Protocol : Options for protecting the climate, World Resources Institute, pp.203-222, 2002. ⟨halshs-00199611⟩