Trends of interest rates term structure in US secular data

Georges Prat (1)

1 MDEM - Modélisation de la dynamique économique et monetaire

U.S. Secular data published by Friedman and Schwartz (1982) tend to confirm the standard arbitrage model of the interest rates term structure when expectations are of the regressive - adaptive form, when the risk premium depends both from past volatility of interest rates and from the risk of default, and finally when an error correction mechanism describes the market convergence towards the arbitrage relation.

Mots clés: interest rates; term structure; expectations; risk premium

Domaines: Economies et finances

Georges Prat. Trends of interest rates term structure in US secular data. Advances in Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management, 1999, 6, pp.109-32. ⟨halshs-00173020⟩