The fundamentals of the future international emissions trading system

Loreta Stankeviciute (1) , Alban Kitous (2, 3) , Patrick Criqui (1)

1 LEPII - Laboratoire d'Economie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale
2 Enerdata
3 IPTS - JRC Institute for Prospective Technological Studies

The study aims to examine the efficiency aspects of the international carbon market, with a focus on economic impacts on the European energy system, by analyzing the sectoral Marginal Abatements Cost Curves (MACC) and the trading under different global carbon market configurations in 2010 and in 2020. To produce a consistent and realistic assessment we employ sources such as: second NAPs under ETS, GHG National Inventories, EIA data and POLES world energy model to constitute the sectoral base year and 2010, 2020 emission levels in different countries and regions. We then use the market analysis tool ASPEN, which enables to derive supply and demand from sectoral MACCs produced with POLES model, and to evaluate the economic impacts on the carbon market participants. The paper shows in particular that in compliance with 2020 emission reduction targets, the benefits of an extended carbon market gain importance since more than 50% of the reduction target is achieved by ETS sectors and especially electricity sector. Furthermore, the new flexibility margins provided by a longer time-period for the adjustment of investments in new generation capacities compensates for the increasing pressure towards stronger emission reductions

Mots clés: emission trading; international carbon market; CO2 price

Domaines: Economies et finances

Loreta Stankeviciute, Alban Kitous, Patrick Criqui. The fundamentals of the future international emissions trading system. Energy Policy, 2008, 36 (11), pp.4272-7286. ⟨halshs-00172290⟩