Fusion of experts' opinions on climate sensitivity with the Transferable Belief Model

Abstract : This paper aggregates experts' opinion on the climate sensitivity parameter from Morgan and Keith (1995) using the Transferable Belief Model. The non-independence of experts issue is dealt with by organizing experts into schools of thought, requiring non-interactivity only across but not within groups. The issue of dissonance, that is wide qualitative differences in beliefs, is dealt with by using a disjunctive rather than conjunctive rule to combine the groups. We find the fusion do not support the idea that climate sensitivity must necessarily be within the IPCC range at any level, that the plausibility of the [4.5, 12] range is about 0.62, and for [6.0, 12] it is 0.31.
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https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00112129
Contributor : Minh Ha-Duong <>
Submitted on : Tuesday, November 7, 2006 - 3:34:11 PM
Last modification on : Friday, March 29, 2019 - 9:10:40 AM
Long-term archiving on : Tuesday, April 6, 2010 - 7:12:10 PM

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Minh Ha-Duong. Fusion of experts' opinions on climate sensitivity with the Transferable Belief Model. 2006. ⟨halshs-00112129v1⟩

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