Review of risk and uncertainty concepts for climate change assessments including human dimensions

Abstract : This paper discusses aspects of risk and uncertainty relevant in an interdisciplinary assessment of climate change policy. It opposes not only the objective approach (viewing probabilities as degrees of truth) versus the subjective approach (viewing them as degrees of certainty), but also situations of risk (when precise probabilities are well founded) versus situations of uncertainty (broader forms of ignorance such as Knightian or deep uncertainty, incompleteness, vagueness). It argues that the evolution of the IPCC guidelines on risk and uncertainties from the third to the fourth report can be read as a move away from a core objective and probabilistic position, to include more complex aspects of uncertainty. Still, many human dimensions such as strategic uncertainties, surprises, metaphysics, taboos and epistemic uncertainties remain missing from the IPCC guidelines' systematic typology.
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https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00008089
Contributor : Minh Ha-Duong <>
Submitted on : Saturday, January 21, 2006 - 11:37:41 PM
Last modification on : Friday, March 29, 2019 - 9:10:40 AM
Long-term archiving on : Saturday, April 3, 2010 - 7:51:54 PM

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Minh Ha-Duong. Review of risk and uncertainty concepts for climate change assessments including human dimensions. 2006. ⟨halshs-00008089v1⟩

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