Model uncertainty and its impact on the pricing of derivative instruments

Rama Cont (1)

1 CMAP - Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées - Ecole Polytechnique

Model uncertainty, in the context of derivative pricing, can be defined as the uncertainty on the value of a contingent claim resulting from the lack of precise knowledge of the pricing model to be used for its valuation. We introduce here a quantitative framework for defining model uncertainty in option pricing models. After discussing some properties which a quantitative measure of model uncertainty should verify in order to be useful and relevant in the context of risk measurement and management, we propose a method for measuring model uncertainty which verifies these properties and yields numbers which are comparable to other risk measures and compatible with observations of market prices of a set of benchmark derivatives. We illustrate the difference between model uncertainty and the more common notion of "market risk" through examples. Finally, we illustrate the connection between our proposed measure of model uncertainty and the recent literature on coherent and convex risk measures.

Mots clés: decision under ambiguity; uncertainty; option pricing; risk measures; mathematical finance

Domaines: Economies et finances

Rama Cont. Model uncertainty and its impact on the pricing of derivative instruments. Mathematical Finance, 2006, 16 (3), pp.519 - 547. ⟨10.1111/j.1467-9965.2006.00281.x⟩. ⟨halshs-00002695⟩