Abstract : We explore the consequences of an earlier phase-out of Ozone Depleting Substances, starting ten years before the Montreal Protocol. Atmospheric chemistry simulations verify the effectiveness of such an early-action scenario: stratospheric chlorine abundance remains below the level at which the ozone hole was discovered, even though countries are permanently allowed to continue using ODS to a non-negligible extent. A sectorally detailed technico-economic analysis finds that the additional cost of the earlier action scenario would have been moderate. We conclude that the Montreal Protocol was only partially successful at precaution: global atmospheric environmental problems could be regulated before surprising non-linearities occur.
https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00001593
Contributor : Minh Ha-Duong
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Submitted on : Thursday, May 20, 2004 - 8:59:27 PM
Last modification on : Tuesday, February 11, 2020 - 10:10:04 AM
Long-term archiving on: Monday, March 29, 2010 - 8:28:48 PM
