The Citius End : World Records Progression Announces the Completion of a Brief Ultra-Physiological Quest
Geoffroy C.B. Berthelot
(1, 2, 3)
,
Valérie Thibault
(1, 2, 3)
,
Muriel Tafflet
(1, 2, 4)
,
Sylvie Escolano
(1, 2, 4)
,
Nour El Helou
(1, 2, 3)
,
Xavier Jouven
(4, 3)
,
Olivier Hermine
(5)
,
Jean-François Toussaint
(1, 2, 3, 6)
1
INSEP -
Institut national du sport et de l'éducation physique
2 IRMES - EA 7329 - Institut de recherche biomédicale et d’épidémiologie du sport
3 UPD5 - Université Paris Descartes - Paris 5
4 Recherche en épidémiologie et biostatistique
5 CHRI - Cytokines, hématopoïèse et réponse immune
6 Hôpital Hôtel-Dieu [Paris]
2 IRMES - EA 7329 - Institut de recherche biomédicale et d’épidémiologie du sport
3 UPD5 - Université Paris Descartes - Paris 5
4 Recherche en épidémiologie et biostatistique
5 CHRI - Cytokines, hématopoïèse et réponse immune
6 Hôpital Hôtel-Dieu [Paris]
Geoffroy C.B. Berthelot
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 182881
- IdHAL : geoffroy-berthelot
- ORCID : 0000-0003-4036-6114
- IdRef : 174431864
Sylvie Escolano
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 758181
- ORCID : 0000-0003-0864-4321
Olivier Hermine
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 756140
- ORCID : 0000-0003-2574-3874
- IdRef : 069884927
Résumé
World records (WR) in sports illustrate the ultimate expression of human integrated muscle biology, through speed or strength performances. Analysis and prediction of man's physiological boundaries in sports and impact of external (historical or environmental) conditions on WR occurrence are subject to scientific controversy. Based on the analysis of 3263 WR established for all quantifiable official contests since the first Olympic Games, we show here that WR progression rate follows a piecewise exponential decaying pattern with very high accuracy (mean adjusted r 2 values = 0.9160.08 (s.d.)). Starting at 75% of their estimated asymptotic values in 1896, WR have now reached 99%, and, present conditions prevailing, half of all WR will not be improved by more than 0,05% in 2027. Our model, which may be used to compare future athletic performances or assess the impact of international antidoping policies, forecasts that human species' physiological frontiers will be reached in one generation. This will have an impact on the future conditions of athlete training and on the organization of competitions. It may also alter the Olympic motto and spirit.
Domaines
Physiologie du sportFormat du dépôt | Fichier |
---|---|
Type de dépôt | Article dans une revue |
Résumé |
en
World records (WR) in sports illustrate the ultimate expression of human integrated muscle biology, through speed or strength performances. Analysis and prediction of man's physiological boundaries in sports and impact of external (historical or environmental) conditions on WR occurrence are subject to scientific controversy. Based on the analysis of 3263 WR established for all quantifiable official contests since the first Olympic Games, we show here that WR progression rate follows a piecewise exponential decaying pattern with very high accuracy (mean adjusted r 2 values = 0.9160.08 (s.d.)). Starting at 75% of their estimated asymptotic values in 1896, WR have now reached 99%, and, present conditions prevailing, half of all WR will not be improved by more than 0,05% in 2027. Our model, which may be used to compare future athletic performances or assess the impact of international antidoping policies, forecasts that human species' physiological frontiers will be reached in one generation. This will have an impact on the future conditions of athlete training and on the organization of competitions. It may also alter the Olympic motto and spirit.
|
Titre |
en
The Citius End : World Records Progression Announces the Completion of a Brief Ultra-Physiological Quest
|
Auteur(s) |
Geoffroy C.B. Berthelot
1, 2, 3
, Valérie Thibault
1, 2, 3
, Muriel Tafflet
1, 2, 4
, Sylvie Escolano
1, 2, 4
, Nour El Helou
1, 2, 3
, Xavier Jouven
4, 3
, Olivier Hermine
5
, Jean-François Toussaint
1, 2, 3, 6
1
INSEP -
Institut national du sport et de l'éducation physique
( 134564 )
- 11 avenue du Tremblay, 75012 Paris
- France
2
IRMES - EA 7329 -
Institut de recherche biomédicale et d’épidémiologie du sport
( 415984 )
- Institut National du Sport, de l’Expertise et de la Performance (INSEP)
11 avenue du Tremblay
75012 Paris
- France
3
UPD5 -
Université Paris Descartes - Paris 5
( 301664 )
- 12, rue de l'École de Médecine - 75270 Paris cedex 06
- France
4
Recherche en épidémiologie et biostatistique
( 2857 )
- 16, Avenue Paul Vaillant-Couturier 94807 VILLEJUIF CEDEX
- France
5
CHRI -
Cytokines, hématopoïèse et réponse immune
( 1288 )
- Bâtiment Sèvres - Porte I
161 Rue de Sèvres
75743 PARIS CEDEX 15
- France
6
Hôpital Hôtel-Dieu [Paris]
( 306007 )
- 1, place du Parvis Notre-Dame
75004 Paris
- France
|
Comité de lecture |
Oui
|
Vulgarisation |
Non
|
Nom de la revue |
|
Langue du document |
Anglais
|
Audience |
Internationale
|
Date de publication |
2008
|
Volume |
3
|
Numéro |
2
|
Page/Identifiant |
e1552
|
Domaine(s) |
|
DOI | 10.1371/journal.pone.0001552 |
Origine :
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