Format du dépôt |
Fichier |
Type de dépôt |
Article dans une revue |
Titre |
en
The impact of 2020 French municipal elections on the spread of COVID-19
|
Résumé |
en
Soon after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the French government decided to still hold the first round of the 2020 municipal elections as scheduled on March 15. What was the impact of these elections on the spread of COVID-19 in France? Answering this question leads to intricate econometric issues as omitted variables may drive both epidemiological dynamics and electoral turnout, and as a national lockdown was imposed at almost the same time as the elections. In order to disentangle the effect of the elections from that of confounding factors, we first predict each department’s epidemiological dynamics using information up to the election. We then take advantage of differences in electoral turnout across departments to identify the impact of the election on prediction errors in hospitalizations. We report a detrimental effect of the first round of the election on hospitalizations in locations that were already at relatively advanced stages of the epidemic. Estimates suggest that the elections accounted for at least 3,000 hospitalizations, or 11% of all hospitalizations by the end of March. Given the sizable health cost of holding elections during an epidemic, promoting ways of voting that reduce exposure to COVID-19 is key until the pandemic shows signs of abating.
|
Auteur(s)
|
Guilhem Cassan
1, 2, 3, 4, 5
, Marc Sangnier
1, 6
1
UNamur -
Université de Namur [Namur]
( 364917 )
- Rempart de la Vierge 8, 5000 Namur
- Belgique
2
CEPR -
Center for Economic Policy Research
( 143559 )
- Royaume-Uni
3
CEPREMAP -
Centre pour la recherche économique et ses applications
( 300479 )
- Ecole normale supérieure (ENS)
48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris
- France
-
Département d'économie de l'ENS-PSL ( 1151928 )
;
-
École normale supérieure - Paris ( 59704 )
;
-
Université Paris Sciences et Lettres ( 564132 )
4
CRED -
Centre de Recherche en Economie et Droit
( 1096517 )
- Centre Valette,
19-21 rue Valette / Rez-de-jardin,
75005 Paris
- France
-
Université Paris-Panthéon-Assas ( 1091427 )
5
DeFiPP -
Development Finance and Public Policies
( 1094937 )
- Namur
- Belgique
6
AMSE -
Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques
( 526949 )
- 5-9 Boulevard Bourdet
CS 50498
13205 Marseille Cedex 1
- France
-
École des hautes études en sciences sociales UMR7316 ( 99539 )
;
-
Aix Marseille Université UMR7316 ( 198056 )
;
-
École Centrale de Marseille UMR7316 ( 300415 )
;
-
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique UMR7316 ( 441569 )
|
Langue du document |
Anglais
|
Nom de la revue |
|
Vulgarisation |
Non
|
Comité de lecture |
Oui
|
Audience |
Internationale
|
Date de publication |
2022-07
|
Date de publication électronique |
2022-03-24
|
Volume |
35
|
Numéro |
3
|
Page/Identifiant |
963-988
|
URL éditeur |
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00148-022-00887-0
|
Classification |
ACL-2 / HCERES A
|
Domaine(s) |
-
Sciences de l'Homme et Société/Economies et finances
-
Sciences de l'Homme et Société/Economies et finances
|
Mots-clés (JEL) |
-
I - Health, Education, and Welfare/I.I1 - Health/I.I1.I18 - Government Policy • Regulation • Public Health
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I - Health, Education, and Welfare/I.I1 - Health/I.I1.I18 - Government Policy • Regulation • Public Health
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I - Health, Education, and Welfare/I.I1 - Health/I.I1.I10 - General
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I - Health, Education, and Welfare/I.I1 - Health/I.I1.I10 - General
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D - Microeconomics/D.D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making/D.D7.D72 - Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
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D - Microeconomics/D.D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making/D.D7.D72 - Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
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P - Economic Systems/P.P1 - Capitalist Systems/P.P1.P16 - Political Economy
-
P - Economic Systems/P.P1 - Capitalist Systems/P.P1.P16 - Political Economy
|
Projet(s) ANR |
|
Financement |
-
Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek – Vlaanderen (FWO)
-
Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek – Vlaanderen (FWO)
-
Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique – FNRS under EOS Project O020918F (EOS ID 30784531)
-
Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique – FNRS under EOS Project O020918F (EOS ID 30784531)
|
Mots-clés |
en
COVID-19, Hospitalizations, Electoral turnout, Municipal elections, Prediction errors
|
DOI |
10.1007/s00148-022-00887-0 |
Pubmed Id |
35345551 |
PubMed Central |
PMC8942813 |
UT key WOS |
000772738200001 |