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| HAL : halshs-00443566, version 1 |
| Fiche détaillée |  Récupérer au format |
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| Healthy aging versus demographic trends: the French case, estimated by markovian microsimulation methods |
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| Sophie Thiébaut 1, 2Andrew Armstrong 3 |
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| (30/12/2009) |
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| The Objective of this paper is to test the consequences of changes in health status of future cohorts of French elderly on healthcare expenditures. We value the precise effect of epidemiological and life expectancy changes on health expenditures for 2025 by using a markovian microsimulation model for a representative database of the contemporary cohorts in France. The originality of these simulations holds in the use of an aggregate indicator of morbidity-mortality, capturing a vital risk and making possible to adapt the quantification of the life expectancies by taking into account of a life without incapacity and/or of the presence of severe pathologies. We forecast a reliable range for future national health spending, under different epidemiological scenarios of morbidity: benchmark case (BM), healthy aging (HA), healthy aging and medical progress (AM). We obtain an evaluation of the annual growth rates in health expenditure accounted for solely by aging: +1.18%; +0.95%; +1.38% according to the scenarios BM; HA; AM. In short, the effective decreases in morbidity rates are not sufficient enough to compensate the massive arrival of baby-boomers at elderly age in France for the period 2010- 2025. |
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| 1 : | Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille (GREQAM) |
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Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille II – Université Paul Cézanne - Aix-Marseille III – École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] – CNRS : UMR6579 |
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| 2 : | Sciences économiques et sociales, systèmes de santé, sociétés (SE4S) |
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INSERM : U912 – Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] – Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille II – ORS PACA |
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| 3 : | NATSEM |
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National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling |
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| 4 : | Epidémiologie et Sciences Sociales Appliquées à l'Innovation Médicale |
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INSERM : U379 – Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille II |
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| Discipline | : | Sciences de l'Homme et Société/Economie et finances |
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| health – health policy – simulation method – econometrics – social security – planning Models |
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| Liste des fichiers attachés à ce document : | |||||
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| halshs-00443566, version 1 | |
| http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00443566 | |
| oai:halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr:halshs-00443566 | |
| Contributeur : Anne Peguin-Feissolle | |
| Soumis le : Mercredi 30 Décembre 2009, 15:04:45 | |
| Dernière modification le : Mercredi 30 Décembre 2009, 15:13:11 | |
