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| HAL : hal-00712888, version 1 |
| DOI : 10.1007/s11238-011-9263-6 |
| Fiche détaillée |  Récupérer au format |
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| Theory and Decision 73, 1 (2012) NC |
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| The predictive role of counterfactuals |
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| Alfredo Di Tillio 1Itzhak Gilboa 2, 3 |
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| (07/2012) |
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| We suggest a model that describes how counterfactuals are constructed and justified. The model can describe how counterfactual beliefs are updated given the unfolding of actual history. It also allows us to examine the use of counterfactuals in prediction, and to show that a logically omniscient reasoner gains nothing from using counterfactuals for prediction. |
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| 1 : | Bocconi University |
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Bocconi University |
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| 2 : | Groupement de Recherche et d'Etudes en Gestion à HEC (GREGH) |
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GROUPE HEC – CNRS : UMR2959 |
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| 3 : | Tel-Aviv University |
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Tel-Aviv University |
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| 4 : | Department of Economics |
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Yale University |
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| Domaine | : | Sciences de l'Homme et Société/Economie et finances |
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| induction – counterfactuals – prediction |
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| Liste des fichiers attachés à ce document : | |||||
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| hal-00712888, version 1 | |
| http://hal-hec.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00712888 | |
| oai:hal-hec.archives-ouvertes.fr:hal-00712888 | |
| Contributeur : Sophie Forcadell | |
| Soumis le : Mardi 3 Juillet 2012, 08:57:47 | |
| Dernière modification le : Mardi 18 Décembre 2012, 20:21:16 | |
