Are grain markets in Niger driven by speculation?
Catherine Araujo Bonjean
(1)
,
Catherine Simonet
(1)
Catherine Araujo Bonjean
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 171476
- IdHAL : catherine-araujo
- IdRef : 033534802
Catherine Simonet
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 764877
- IdRef : 182316963
Résumé
Over the last two decades, millet prices in Niger have experienced several periods
of spectacular increases during which they seemed to go well above their fundamental
value. The presence of rational speculative bubbles might explain these episodes
of price booms followed by rapid reversals. Relying on the present value
model of commodity pricing we test for the presence of periodically and partially
collapsing price bubbles for 31 millet markets in Niger by using right-tailed recursive
unit root tests. Once controlled for observed fundamentals, one-third of price series
manifest explosive behaviour akin to a bubble. Under the rational bubble hypothesis,
the results indicate that the traders operating in separate geographic areas differ
with respect to information quality. A competing interpretation is that some large
traders use their market power to charge higher prices to consumers.
Domaines
Economies et financesFormat du dépôt | Notice |
---|---|
Type de dépôt | Article dans une revue |
Titre |
en
Are grain markets in Niger driven by speculation?
|
Résumé |
en
Over the last two decades, millet prices in Niger have experienced several periods
of spectacular increases during which they seemed to go well above their fundamental
value. The presence of rational speculative bubbles might explain these episodes
of price booms followed by rapid reversals. Relying on the present value
model of commodity pricing we test for the presence of periodically and partially
collapsing price bubbles for 31 millet markets in Niger by using right-tailed recursive
unit root tests. Once controlled for observed fundamentals, one-third of price series
manifest explosive behaviour akin to a bubble. Under the rational bubble hypothesis,
the results indicate that the traders operating in separate geographic areas differ
with respect to information quality. A competing interpretation is that some large
traders use their market power to charge higher prices to consumers.
|
Auteur(s) |
Catherine Araujo Bonjean
1
, Catherine Simonet
1
1
CERDI -
Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International
( 490669 )
- Pôle tertiaire, 26 avenue Léon Blum, 63000 Clermont-Ferrand
- France
|
Langue du document |
Anglais
|
Nom de la revue |
|
Vulgarisation |
Non
|
Comité de lecture |
Oui
|
Audience |
Internationale
|
Date de publication |
2016-07-07
|
Volume |
68
|
Numéro |
3
|
Page/Identifiant |
714 - 735
|
Domaine(s) |
|
Mots-clés (JEL) |
|
Projet(s) ANR |
|
DOI | 10.1093/oep/gpw012 |
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