A small macro econometric model for Kazakhstan: a retrospective of alternative economic policies undertaken during the transition process [Working papers]

Gilles Dufrénot (1, 2, 3) , Adelya Ospanova (4) , Alain Sand-Zantman (5)

1 DEFI - Centre de recherche en développement économique et finance internationale
2 CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales
3 Centre de recherche de la Banque de France
4 AMU - Aix Marseille Université
5 GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne

This paper presents a quarterly macro econometric model of the Kazakhstan. The main goal is to provide a stylized representation of the Kazakh economy in order to simulate the consequences of several economic policies viewed by the authorities as essential during the period of transition to a market economy. The policy simulation potential of the model is illustrated by five types of simulations : interest rate shocks, foreign direct investment shocks, world oil price shocks, foreign demand shocks and nominal wages shocks. These sets of simulations show the importance of foreign direct investments in terms of theirs global positive effect, as well as the demand effect of an increase in the wages. We also find that effect of the tight monetary policy in not ambiguous ; we argue that in some cases it is not the most efficient policy instrument to sustain the economy.

Mots clés: Transition economies; Kazakhstan; Macroeconomic stabilization; Central Asian CIS countries

Domaines: Economies et finances

Gilles Dufrénot, Adelya Ospanova, Alain Sand-Zantman. A small macro econometric model for Kazakhstan: a retrospective of alternative economic policies undertaken during the transition process [Working papers]. 2014. ⟨halshs-00926223⟩