Some further estimations for: Voting and economic factors in French elections for the European Parliament

Antoine Auberger (1)

1 IRGEI - Institut de Recherche sur la Gouvernance et l'Economie des Institutions

The purpose of this note is to complete the estimates made in Auberger (2012) for French presidential elections. We study the influence of the local unemployment on the vote for French presidential elections. We build another variable taking into account the responsibility of the incumbent President for the economic situation after a cohabitation period. We also make estimates for the second-round vote of French presidential elections (without the 2002 French presidential election or with an estimated vote for this election). We show that over the 1988-2007 period (without 2002), it is not necessary to take into account the influence of cohabitation periods on the responsibility of the government in relation to the economic situation.

Mots clés: Vote functions; French elections; European Parliament; Election forecasting; Local unemployment

Domaines: Economies et finances; Science politique

Antoine Auberger. Some further estimations for: Voting and economic factors in French elections for the European Parliament. 2013. ⟨halshs-00872334⟩