Disentangling crashes from tail events

Sofiane Aboura (1, 2)

1 CEREG - Centre de Recherche sur la gestion et la Finance - DRM UMR 7088
2 DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management

The study of tail events has become a central preoccupation for academics, investors and policy makers, given the recent financial turmoil. However, what differentiates a crash from a tail event? This article answers this question by taking a risk management perspective that is based on an augmented extreme value theory methodology with an application to the French stock market (1968-2008). In contrast with the common sense, it claims that crashes happen when the volatility is the lowest. Our empirical results indicate that the French stock market experienced only two crashes in 2007-2008 among the 12 identified over the whole period.

Mots clés: Extreme Value Theory; Volatility; Risk Management

Domaines: Economies et finances

Sofiane Aboura. Disentangling crashes from tail events. 2010. ⟨halshs-00638072⟩