Changing-regime volatility : A fractionally integrated SETAR model

Anne Peguin-Feissolle (1) , Gilles Dufrénot (1, 2) , Dominique Guegan (3)

1 GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille
2 DEFI - Centre de recherche en développement économique et finance internationale
3 ENS Cachan - Département d'Economie et de Gestion

This paper presents a 2-regime SETAR model with different longmemory processes in both regimes. We briefly present the memory properties of this model and propose an estimation method. Such a process is applied to the absolute and squared returns of five stock indices. A comparison with simple ARFIMA models is made using some forecastibility criteria. Our empirical results suggest that our model offers an interesting alternative competing framework to describe the persistent dynamics in modeling the returns.

Mots clés: SETAR; Long-memory; Stock indices; Forecasting

Domaines: Economies et finances

Anne Peguin-Feissolle, Gilles Dufrénot, Dominique Guegan. Changing-regime volatility : A fractionally integrated SETAR model. 2006. ⟨halshs-00410540⟩