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| HAL : halshs-00260190, version 2 |
| Fiche détaillée |  Récupérer au format |
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| Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 8 (2008) 905-918 |
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| Versions disponibles : | v1 (03-03-2008) | v2 (15-05-2008) |
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| Using maps of city analogues to display and interpret climate change scenarios and their uncertainty |
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| Sebastian Kopf 1Minh Ha-Duong 2 |
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| (2008) |
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| We describe a method to represent the results of climate simulation models with analogues. An analogue to a city A is a city B whose climate today represents A's simulated future climate. Climates were characterized and compared non-parametrically, using the 30-years distribution of three indicators: Aridity Index, Heating Degree Days and Cooling Degree Days. Analogy was evaluated statistically with the two-samples Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, generalized to 3 dimensions. We looked at the climate of 12 European cities at the end of the century under an A2 climate change scenario. We used two datasets produced with high-resolution regional climate simulation models from the Hadley Center and Meteo France. Climate analogues were generally found southward of present locations, a clear warming trend even if much model and scenario uncertainty remains. Climate analogues provide an intuitive way to show the possible effects of climate change on urban areas, offering a holistic approach to think about how cities adapt to different climates. Evidence of its communication value comes from the reuse of our maps in teaching and in several European mass-media. |
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| 1 : | Jacobs University Bremen |
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Jacobs University Bremen |
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| 2 : | Centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement (CIRED) |
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CIRAD : UMR56 – CNRS : UMR8568 – Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) – Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées – Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et Forêts |
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| 3 : | CNRM (CNRM) |
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Météo France |
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| Discipline | : | Sciences de l'Homme et Société/Etudes de l'environnement Sciences de l'Homme et Société/Géographie Planète et Univers/Sciences de la Terre/Climatologie Sciences de l'environnement/Milieux et Changements globaux |
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| Climate change – Climate analogues – Climate relocation – Urban Areas – Uncertainty |
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| Liste des fichiers attachés à ce document : | |||||
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| halshs-00260190, version 2 | |
| http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00260190/fr/ | |
| oai:halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr:halshs-00260190_v2 | |
| Contributeur : Minh Ha-Duong | |
| Soumis le : Jeudi 15 Mai 2008, 12:06:36 | |
| Dernière modification le : Mardi 26 Janvier 2010, 12:45:44 | |
