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| HAL : halshs-00207621, version 2 |
| Fiche détaillée |  Récupérer au format |
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| Versions disponibles : | v1 (18-01-2008) | v2 (22-09-2008) |
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| Optimal growth with adaptation to climate change |
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| Patrice Dumas 1, 2Minh Ha-Duong 2 |
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| (01/02/2008) |
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| Many economic sectors, like housing or transportation, are exposed to climate and likely to suffer efficiency losses when climate changes. The global economy is far from dematerialized yet, these sectors represent a significant fraction of the existing capital stock. Using an optimal growth model with perfect knowledge, we examine the balance between these efficiency losses and investment in adaptation measures, which can become sunk costs when climate changes even more. Simulations remind that adaptation should be proactive rather than reactive: protection measures installed today are not designed for today's climate only, but anticipate future warmer conditions over their lifetime. While there is an over-investment compared with a no climate change baseline, the overall cost to adapt is relatively low in front of the potential losses from misadaptation. This allows to stay almost always well adapted to climate. |
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| 1 : | Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) |
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CNRS : UMR8539 – INSU – Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris VI – Polytechnique - X – Ecole Normale Supérieure de Paris - ENS Paris |
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| 2 : | Centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement (CIRED) |
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CIRAD : UMR56 – CNRS : UMR8568 – Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) – Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées – Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et Forêts |
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| Discipline | : | Sciences de l'Homme et Société/Economie et finances |
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| Climate change – adaptation – optimal growth – integrated assessment model |
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| halshs-00207621, version 2 | |
| http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00207621/fr/ | |
| oai:halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr:halshs-00207621_v2 | |
| Contributeur : Minh Ha-Duong | |
| Soumis le : Vendredi 19 Septembre 2008, 16:18:47 | |
| Dernière modification le : Lundi 22 Septembre 2008, 10:14:13 | |
