Exit from short-term contract. A french empirical analysis, 1990-2002

Mohamed Ben Halima (1)

1 GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique

This paper tests the determinants of the transition out of short-term contracts by means of competing risk form of the semi-parametric Cox proportional hazard model. We use three labour market states distinguishing between exit into long-term contract, another short-term contract, and unemployment. For each type of exit, we define a separate hazard function that we'll call a type-specific hazard. The estimates are carried out from a dataset recording individual labour market histories, the French Labour Force Survey (LFS) collected by the
French National Statistical Institute (INSEE). The competing risk model is estimated for all the individual as well as separately for men and women. Our results show that, for men and women, the conditional probability of exiting STC into LTC decreases after 12th months. Moreover, staying in the same firm after a STC increases the chances of getting stable jobs in the future.

Mots clés: Short-Term Contracts; Duration model; Competing risk hazard model

Domaines: Economies et finances

Mohamed Ben Halima. Exit from short-term contract. A french empirical analysis, 1990-2002. Société Canadienne de Sciences Economiques (SCSE), 2006, Montréal, Canada. ⟨halshs-00140048⟩