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| HAL : halshs-00001593, version 1 |
| DOI : 10.1016/S0959-3780(02)00087-0 |
| Fiche détaillée |  Récupérer au format |
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| Global Environmental Change 31 (1) (2003) 43-49 |
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| A pro-active stratospheric ozone protection scenario |
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| Minh Ha-Duong 1Gérard Mégie 2 |
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| (2003) |
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| We explore the consequences of an earlier phase-out of Ozone Depleting Substances, starting ten years before the Montreal Protocol. Atmospheric chemistry simulations verify the effectiveness of such an early-action scenario: stratospheric chlorine abundance remains below the level at which the ozone hole was discovered, even though countries are permanently allowed to continue using ODS to a non-negligible extent. A sectorally detailed technico-economic analysis finds that the additional cost of the earlier action scenario would have been moderate. We conclude that the Montreal Protocol was only partially successful at precaution: global atmospheric environmental problems could be regulated before surprising non-linearities occur. |
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| 1 : | Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED) |
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CIRAD : UMR56 – CNRS : UMR8568 – Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) – Ecole des Ponts ParisTech – Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et Forêts |
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| 2 : | Service d'aéronomie (SA) |
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CNRS : UMR7620 – INSU – Université Paris VI - Pierre et Marie Curie – Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines |
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| Discipline | : | Sciences de l'Homme et Société/Méthodes et statistiques |
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| stratospheric ozone – policy – Montreal protocol – precaution |
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| Liste des fichiers attachés à ce document : | |||||
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| halshs-00001593, version 1 | |
| http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00001593 | |
| oai:halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr:halshs-00001593 | |
| Contributeur : Minh Ha-Duong | |
| Soumis le : Jeudi 20 Mai 2004, 20:59:27 | |
| Dernière modification le : Dimanche 23 Mai 2004, 22:04:03 | |
